Where is the future of photovoltaic?

Where is the future of photovoltaic?

Jan 24,2022.


In 2021, new power systems, silicon material price hikes, building-integrated photovoltaic, county-wide promotion, heterojunction cells, and large-scale wind and solar bases... These words in the industry will gradually become familiar to the society.

In 2021, to sum up in one sentence, under the guidance of policies, photovoltaic have become the main energy source, and are no longer a "substitute player".

Some reviews can be made from the following aspects:

1. Industry chain overview and installed capacity

Looking back on 2021, under the combined effect of policy guidance and the continuous application of new technologies, my country's photovoltaic industry will continue to maintain its position as the world's first in terms of production capacity, output and technology level.

Specifically, the photovoltaic industry chain is divided into: silicon materials, silicon wafers, cells, modules and other links. According to the statistics of the China Photovoltaic Association, my country's current polysilicon and module production ranks first in the world for 9 consecutive years and 13 years. As of 2019, my country's polysilicon production accounted for 67.3% of the world's production, silicon wafer production accounted for 97.4% of the world's production, cell production accounted for 78.7% of the world's production, and module production accounted for 71.3% of the world's.

According to data released by the National Energy Administration, from January to November 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of domestic photovoltaic is 34.8GW, a year-on-year increase of 34%, of which the annual cumulative scale of households is 16.49GW, a year-on-year increase of 64%. It is estimated that the annual domestic photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 50GW above.

In fact, due to the rise in silicon material prices and other reasons, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in my country in 2021 is slightly less than the expected target, which also leaves more room for growth in 2022.

2. Policy Review

Policy support is undoubtedly a powerful driving force for the development of the industry. In 2021, policies to support the development of the photovoltaic industry will be further increased. From the clear construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body, to the promotion of photovoltaic pilot projects in the whole county, to the carbon emission reduction support tools launched by financial institutions, the photovoltaic industry is like a duck in water.

From the perspective of the policy evolution process, the support for the development of photovoltaic at the national level is increasing. From the beginning of the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" to 2021, photovoltaic households have become another new focus after years of rapid growth in the photovoltaic industry. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, it clearly advocated the development model of simultaneous development of centralized and distributed energy, and vigorously increased the scale of photovoltaic power generation:

Among all policies, the goal is the most important. On April 19, 2021, the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Matters Related to the Development and Construction of Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2021 (Draft for Comment)", proposing that in 2021, the national wind power . Photovoltaic power generation accounts for about 11% of the total electricity consumption of the whole society, and it will increase year by year in the follow-up, reaching about 16.5% by 2025.

3. The leading characteristics of the photovoltaic sector in the capital market are obvious

The development of the photovoltaic industry is in full swing, and the market value of related listed companies has also risen.

Research on the index is more accurate for the performance of the industry. Taking the CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index as an example, the index takes the stocks of companies whose main business involves the upper, middle and lower reaches of the photovoltaic industry chain as samples to be selected, and selects no more than 50 most representative companies as sample stocks to reflect the photovoltaic industry companies. overall performance.

As of December 20, 2021, the total market value of the index was 2.80 trillion yuan, and the average market value of individual stocks was 56 billion yuan. Among the 50 constituent stocks, most of the constituent stocks have a market value of more than 10 billion, of which the total weight of leading stocks with more than 50 billion accounts for 68.95%. The top ten companies account for 60.38% of the total weight in the index, with a high degree of concentration and obvious leading effect.

4. The core contradiction between upstream and downstream is prominent

In 2021, the photovoltaic industry chain presents a pattern of upstream and downstream profit differentiation within the industry, which is the core contradiction of the industry. The value of the most upstream silicon material products continues to rise, while the downstream cells and modules are sandwiched between the upstream and end customers, complaining endlessly.

In the last month of 2021, the most upstream silicon material in the photovoltaic industry also experienced a "price war" called "involution" by the outside world. For details, please refer to the financial breakfast article "Join the Price War! This "inside-rolled" popular track restarts."

As LONGi and Zhonghuan Silicon Wafers took the lead in the price war on silicon wafers, the industry chain breathed a sigh of relief, and it also gave the market more confidence in the rapid growth of photovoltaic installations in 2022.

2022 forecast: Where is the future of photovoltaic?

1. Overall size

Since the actual installed capacity this year is lower than expected (the original estimate is 55-65GW), and the dual carbon target task is still relatively heavy, this makes the photovoltaic industry generally optimistic about the expected new installed capacity next year. Industry insiders said that in 2022, my country's newly installed photovoltaic capacity may exceed 75GW.

The research report recently released by Soochow Securities is even more optimistic. In the first quarter of 2022, 160,000 tons of silicon material production capacity will be released successively, and the price reduction will greatly stimulate demand. The price reduction in the industrial chain drives the acceleration of ground power stations, the whole county is advanced + the rise in electricity prices stimulates the explosive growth of distributed photovoltaic. Soochow Securities predicts that the domestic market demand may reach 80GW+ in 2022, an increase of 60%+, of which the proportion of distributed photovoltaic will reach 50 %+.

2. Favorable policies

At present, although no new policies have been introduced, there is a direction that will stimulate the development of the industry next year.

On November 8, 2021, the People's Bank of China announced that it will provide low-cost funds to financial institutions through the launch of carbon emission reduction support tools, and guide financial institutions to make independent decisions and bear risks to various types of carbon emission reduction key areas. Enterprises provide carbon emission reduction loans without discrimination, and the loan interest rate is roughly the same as the market quotation rate (LPR) of the same term and grade loan.

According to estimates, this will reduce the cost of photovoltaic installation companies by 0.5%, which will greatly alleviate the current situation of tight capital costs.

3. Changes in the industrial chain

Market participants have the following expectations for changes in all aspects of the industrial chain:

(1) Price reduction of silicon material

(2) component price increase

(3) The national industrial policy continues to support

(4) Global clean energy cooperation

(5) County-wide promotion and distributed photovoltaic construction continue to improve

Among the above 5 items, the first 4 items are relatively easy to predict based on the continuity of industry trends in 2021.

And Article 5 needs to be savoured. There is also a little interlude here. On June 20, 2021, the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Submitting the Pilot Program for Roof Distributed Photovoltaic Development of the Whole County (City, District)" to conduct a pilot distributed photovoltaic installation on the roofs of qualified buildings, and then all over the country. One after another set off the climax of the pilot.

However, some problems have also appeared in the pilot. A few days ago, the Economic Daily issued a document saying, "Promoting the development of rooftop photovoltaic should not be too big": rooftop photovoltaic are widely distributed, with many sites, difficult to manage, and difficult to operate and maintain, requiring good service and quick response. Large enterprises have strong capital and technical strength, and have the advantages of large enterprises, but they also have shortcomings such as high management costs. For private small and medium-sized enterprises, although they are inferior to large enterprises in some aspects, they also have their own comparative advantages. Therefore, all kinds of enterprises compete fully, which helps to form a relationship of complementary, symbiotic and harmonious development.

Judging from this report, in 2021, there will be some "big hulong"-style rash problems in the process of pilot advancement, and unscientific progress and market exclusivity will appear in some places; however, regardless of the controversy, at least it shows the distribution of The prospect of photovoltaic is getting better and better.

According to the requirements of the National Energy Administration, the development of photovoltaic must adhere to a number of simultaneous efforts, including adherence to both centralized and distributed development. Driven by policies, distributed photovoltaic have entered a stage of large-scale development, and the proportion of centralized photovoltaic and distributed photovoltaic installed capacity has gradually tended to balance. It is expected to maintain a good development trend during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.

With the promotion of distributed photovoltaic in the whole county, distributed photovoltaic will most likely remain the most important method in my country in 2022.

4. Other highlights

Analyzing and researching the industry ultimately comes down to the auxiliary value for investment decisions. How do professional institutions interpret the changes in the photovoltaic industry in 2022? Guosen Securities published its views on future forecasts in a recent research report, which can be used as a reference idea:

(1) A major logical change in PV sector investment in the era of parity—switching from marginal capacity cost pricing to marginal demand cost affordability pricing:

(2) In 2022, the production capacity of silicon materials will be fixed in the bottleneck link, and it is estimated that more than 230GW of new installed capacity will be installed in the world: the high boom of silicon materials will continue, the marginal repair of cells will be carried out, and the medium and long-term pattern of modules will be emphasized;

(3) The inverter and auxiliary materials will definitely benefit from a large volume, and focus on the improvement of the pattern and profit margin:

(4) The N-type enters the first year of mass production, giving birth to new opportunities for equipment:

(5) Large base number on the power generation side + high flexibility on the user side, and the energy storage will grow with certainty in 2022.

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